導(dǎo)讀:佩內(nèi)洛普·切尼碰到朋友埃莉諾·馬歇爾時(shí)，她有個(gè)好消息要跟朋友分享：她懷孕了隧膘。埃莉諾也有個(gè)好消息代态，她也懷孕了......更讓人吃驚的是，兩人的預(yù)產(chǎn)期一樣疹吃，都是四月四號蹦疑。那么兩人同一天生產(chǎn)的幾率到底有多大呢？
When Penelope Chaney met up with her friend, Eleanor Marshall, she had good news to share - she was pregnant. But Eleanor also had good news... she was pregnant too. And amazingly, both had been given the same predicted delivery date - 4 April. So what are the chances of both giving birth on the same day?
佩內(nèi)洛普·切尼碰到朋友埃莉諾·馬歇爾時(shí)萨驶，她有個(gè)好消息要跟朋友分享：她懷孕了歉摧。埃莉諾也有個(gè)好消息，她也懷孕了......更讓人吃驚的是，兩人的預(yù)產(chǎn)期一樣叁温，都是四月四號再悼。那么兩人同一天生產(chǎn)的幾率到底有多大呢？
In the UK膝但，a woman’s estimated date of delivery is first calculated by using the date of her last period and adding 280 days, or 40 weeks. That is followed by an ultrasound scan where another estimate is made, based on the size of the foetus. If the two "due dates" differ by a week or more, the scan is taken as the more accurate measure.
在英國冲九，婦女預(yù)產(chǎn)期的推算，首先是根據(jù)最后一次生理期日期跟束，加上280天莺奸，即40周。此后冀宴，進(jìn)行超聲波掃描灭贷，根據(jù)胎兒的大小估算另一個(gè)預(yù)產(chǎn)期。若兩個(gè)“預(yù)產(chǎn)期”之間相差一周或者更久花鹅，則需進(jìn)行更加準(zhǔn)確的掃描。
It’s the same in most developed countries.
預(yù)產(chǎn)期的推算方法在大多數(shù)發(fā)達(dá)國家都相同枫浙。
But data from the Perinatal Institute, a non-profit organisation, shows that an estimated date of delivery is rarely accurate - in fact, a baby is born on its predicted due date just 4% of the time.
但是據(jù)一家非盈利組織圍產(chǎn)期研究所的數(shù)據(jù)表明刨肃，預(yù)產(chǎn)期很少準(zhǔn)確。實(shí)際上箩帚，嬰兒在預(yù)產(chǎn)期誕生的幾率只有4%真友。
The figure is higher when premature births and pregnancies with complications are not included, but only marginally (4.4%).
若不考慮早產(chǎn)或者伴有并發(fā)癥的懷孕現(xiàn)象，那么該數(shù)據(jù)會高一些紧帕，但也只是稍微高一些（4.4%）盔然。
While it may be helpful for parents to get an idea of when their child will arrive, the main purpose of the due date is to "define a metric for the care" of the mother during pregnancy, says Prof Jason Gardosi of the Perinatal Institute.
雖然預(yù)產(chǎn)期有助于父母了解孩子出生的時(shí)間，但是預(yù)產(chǎn)期最重要的是是嗜，為孕期中的媽媽“量身制定護(hù)理過程”愈案，圍產(chǎn)期研究所的杰森·加多斯教授說道。
The advice to the expectant mother, he says, that the baby is likely to come any time between 37 weeks (259 days) and 42 weeks (294 days), a period referred to as "term", when the baby has reached full maturity.
他給孕婦的建議是鹅搪，孩子可能在37周（259天）至42周（294天）期間的任何時(shí)候出生站绪。這段時(shí)間成為“分娩期”，孩子在此期間已經(jīng)發(fā)育完好丽柿。
For women like Penelope and Eleanor, whose pregnancies are low risk, 60% of babies are born within a week either side of the estimated date of delivery.
像佩內(nèi)洛普和埃莉諾這樣的低危孕婦恢准，60%的嬰兒將會與預(yù)產(chǎn)期前一周或后一周出生。
But, as noted above, only 4% (or 4.4%, ignoring pregnancies with complications etc) are born on the predicted date itself - in other words, the chance of this happening is less than one in 20.
但是甫题，如上所說馁筐，只有4%的嬰兒會在預(yù)產(chǎn)期這天出生（若不考慮并發(fā)癥等，則有4.4%的嬰兒在預(yù)產(chǎn)期出生）坠非，也就是說幾率不到5%敏沉。
What, then, are the chances of Penelope’s and Eleanor’s babies both being born on 4 April?
那么佩內(nèi)洛普和埃莉諾都在4月4號生產(chǎn)的幾率有多大呢？
Only 4.4% of 4.4%, or 0.2%.
只有4.4%的4.4%,或者說是0.2%.
The chance that their children will be born on the same day - any day, not necessarily 4 April - is higher. It’s about one in 30.
但是孩子在同一天出生（除4月4號之外的其他日子）的幾率更高，差不多為1/30.
Gardosi says the statistics reveal an important message for pregnant women. The phrase "due date" is misleading, that makes it sound too accurate, he says - it should really be called an "estimated date".
加多斯稱赦抖，這些數(shù)據(jù)為孕婦揭示了一則重要信息舱卡。他說，“預(yù)產(chǎn)期”過于精確队萤，容易引起誤導(dǎo)轮锥，應(yīng)該將其稱為“估計(jì)日期”。
"Many mothers are unnecessarily anxious or impatient if there’s too much reliance on the expected date of delivery," Gardosi says.
“如果過于相信預(yù)產(chǎn)期要尔，會讓很多媽媽感到焦躁舍杜。而這些焦慮根本沒有必要≌栽”
