股息收入愈發(fā)難求
DIVIDENDS provide the vast bulk of long-term returns from equities. Work by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School shows that the real annual total return from American shares since 1900 has been 6.4%. Capital gains supplied just a third of that figure; reinvested dividends accounted for the rest.
股息是股票可以長(zhǎng)期獲得的主要收益挺身。倫敦商學(xué)院的Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh和 Mike Staunton研究表明：自1900年以來(lái)荤堪，美國(guó)股票的真實(shí)年度總收益保持在6.4%享扔。資本收益僅占該數(shù)值的三分之一，而其余均為再投資的股息。
So the outlook for dividends ought to be crucial for equity investors. They should be concerned that, in some markets, dividend income is concentrated in a small number of stocks (see chart). In Australia, Britain, France, Germany and Switzerland, more than 70% of the dividends come from just 20 companies.
因此悦陋，股息未來(lái)的高低對(duì)于股票投資人至關(guān)重要。投資人應(yīng)該會(huì)擔(dān)心，一些市場(chǎng)的股息收入只是集中在少數(shù)股票（見(jiàn)圖表）上磕昼。在澳大利亞、英國(guó)节猿、法國(guó)票从、德國(guó)及瑞士諸國(guó)，70%的股息僅來(lái)源于20家公司滨嘱。
That leaves investors’ income dependent on the fortunes of just a few industries. Banks were big dividend-payers until the financial crisis of 2008; energy and mining companies have been good sources of income since then. But falling commodity prices are leading energy companies to reduce their payouts. Last year 504 American companies cut their dividends, according to Standard & Poor’s, a credit-rating agency, compared with 291 in 2014. Energy companies made up nearly half of the dividend-cutting group in the fourth quarter.
這使得投資人的收入依賴于少數(shù)行業(yè)的命運(yùn)峰鄙。銀行在2008年金融危機(jī)前一直是大額股息的派發(fā)者。從那之后太雨，能源和礦業(yè)公司成為上好的股息收入來(lái)源吟榴。但目前，大宗商品價(jià)格下跌導(dǎo)致能源公司削減支出囊扳。據(jù)信用評(píng)級(jí)機(jī)構(gòu)標(biāo)普的數(shù)據(jù)，去年有504家美國(guó)公司減少股息，與此相比2014年是291家悼粮。而在第四季度減少股息的公司中略吨，能源公司占到將近一半。
As a result of these cuts, dividends are growing more slowly than before. In the fourth quarter of 2015, dividends rose by $3.6 billion in cash terms, compared with a $12 billion increase in the same period of 2014. Investors who need income are now relying on the pharmaceutical and health-care sectors; research by Andrew Lapthorne of Société Générale, a bank, shows that the three largest stock holdings of global income funds are Pfizer, Roche and Johnson & Johnson.
股息減少，所以股息增長(zhǎng)比之前更加緩慢。2015年第四季度，以現(xiàn)金計(jì)股息增長(zhǎng)了36億美金葫哗，而與之相比，2014年同期增長(zhǎng)幅度為120億美金球涛。需要收入的投資者們現(xiàn)在依賴的是制藥和健康領(lǐng)域劣针。法國(guó)興業(yè)銀行的Andrew Lapthorne 研究表明：全球收益型基金的最大三家控股公司為輝瑞、羅氏和強(qiáng)生亿扁。
The narrow base of dividend provision is important when it comes to judging the attractiveness of equities. In some markets, dividend yields are higher than government-bond yields; in Britain, for example, the FTSE All-Share index yields 4% whereas 10-year gilts offer just 1.7%. For some, this makes equities a bargain.
在判斷股票的吸引力時(shí)捺典，股息派發(fā)的窄基底很重要。在一些市場(chǎng)从祝，股息收益高于政府債券收益襟己。以英國(guó)為例，富時(shí)全股指數(shù)收益為4%牍陌，而十年期英國(guó)國(guó)債收益僅為1.7%擎浴。對(duì)一些人而言，買(mǎi)股票更劃算毒涧。
Until the 1950s it was the norm for equities to have a higher yield than bonds. Shares were perceived to be riskier than government bonds so investors demanded higher payouts for owning them. But opinion changed as the market began to be dominated by institutional investors—pension funds and insurance companies. Their size allowed them to own diversified portfolios, in which the consequences of the failure of an individual firm were much reduced. Thus hedged, they piled into equities to capitalise on the tendency of dividends to grow over time. Interest payments on bonds, in contrast, are fixed, which was a particular problem in the inflationary environment of the 1960s and 1970s. As a result the dividend yield dropped below the government-bond yield in most markets and stayed there.
一直到上世紀(jì)50年代贮预，股票的收益通常都是高于債券。因?yàn)槿藗冋J(rèn)為股票比政府債券風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大契讲，所以投資人會(huì)要求更高的回報(bào)才持有股票仿吞。但是當(dāng)機(jī)構(gòu)投資者（養(yǎng)老基金和保險(xiǎn)公司）主導(dǎo)市場(chǎng)時(shí)，觀念發(fā)生了轉(zhuǎn)變捡偏。機(jī)構(gòu)投資者資金量大唤冈，可持有多元化的資產(chǎn)組合，個(gè)別公司業(yè)績(jī)不佳產(chǎn)生的影響會(huì)顯著減小霹琼。如此對(duì)沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)后务傲，他們便大量購(gòu)入股票，因股息會(huì)隨時(shí)間呈增長(zhǎng)而獲利枣申。相比之下，債券的利息支付是固定的看杭，這在上世紀(jì)60忠藤、70年代的通脹環(huán)境下曾是個(gè)特定問(wèn)題。結(jié)果在大多數(shù)市場(chǎng)楼雹，股息收益率降到政府債券收益率之下模孩，并持續(xù)保持這種狀況尖阔。
Since the financial crisis of 2008, the ratio seems to have undergone another fundamental shift. Government bonds are valued for their safety, particularly in a world of low inflation. A high yield on an equity, meanwhile, may simply suggest that investors expect the dividend to be cut. Shares in BHP Billiton, a mining group, have plunged along with commodity prices. That makes their yield, calculated using last year’s dividend, look extremely high, at 12%. But analysts expect the dividend to be cut in half this year. Investors may also be seeking a higher overall dividend yield on equities to reflect the riskier nature of the income stream now that dividends are more concentrated among fewer companies.
自2008年金融危機(jī)以來(lái)，這一比率似乎發(fā)生了另一根本轉(zhuǎn)變榨咐。政府債券因其安全性介却，特別是在全世界低通脹的情況下，而受到推崇块茁。而同時(shí)齿坷，股票的高收益率可能僅僅意味著投資者預(yù)期股息會(huì)減少。礦業(yè)集團(tuán)必和必拓的股票隨著大宗商品價(jià)格跳水而暴跌数焊。這使得它們的收益以去年的股息計(jì)算永淌，看上去極高，達(dá)到了12%佩耳。但是分析人士預(yù)計(jì)今年股息會(huì)減半遂蛀。既然股息收益會(huì)集中于少數(shù)公司手中，投資者可能還會(huì)尋求更高的總股息收益干厚，這也顯示了現(xiàn)金流的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性李滴。
What about share buy-backs? They are an alternative source of income for investors; for some, they are a more tax-efficient way of receiving cash. But buy-backs are much more variable than dividends: the amount spent on them by non-financial companies in the S&P 500 index fell from over $400 billion in 2007 to under $70 billion in 2009, according to Deutsche Bank. Companies can quietly trim their buy-back programmes; a dividend cut is a public sign of trouble. And, of course, investors who sell their shares in a buy-back need to find some other asset to replace that source of income.
股票回購(gòu)情況怎樣？它們是投資者收入的一個(gè)替代來(lái)源蛮瞄。對(duì)一些投資人來(lái)說(shuō)所坯，股票回購(gòu)是一種繳稅較少的收取現(xiàn)金的方式。但是回購(gòu)比股息的變數(shù)大得多裕坊，據(jù)德意志銀行數(shù)據(jù)包竹，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)中的非金融公司用于回購(gòu)的金額，已從2007年的4000億美元下降至2009年的700億美元以下籍凝。公司可以不動(dòng)聲色地修改各自的回購(gòu)計(jì)劃周瞎。減少派息則是一個(gè)公開(kāi)的危險(xiǎn)信號(hào)。當(dāng)然饵蒂，在回購(gòu)中出售股票的投資人需要找到其它資產(chǎn)替代這一收入來(lái)源声诸。
Investors ignore dividends at their peril. In more than a century of data, across 19 countries, the LBS academics found that annual returns from the markets with the highest dividend yields were eight percentage points higher than those from the lowest-yielding markets. So during the current reporting season, smart investors will be looking not just at notional earnings (which can be a highly subjective measure) but at the cold, hard cash that companies are shelling out.
投資人不顧股息紅利，后果堪慮退盯。倫敦商學(xué)院的學(xué)者們通過(guò)19個(gè)國(guó)家一個(gè)世紀(jì)多的數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)現(xiàn)彼乌，最高股息率市場(chǎng)的年回報(bào)比最低股息率市場(chǎng)高8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。因此渊迁，在目前財(cái)報(bào)季慰照，聰明的投資者不僅會(huì)關(guān)注假想收益（這個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)可能非常主觀），還會(huì)關(guān)注公司支付的實(shí)打?qū)嵉默F(xiàn)金琉朽。
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