英文早讀第112篇祝高，選自巴菲特年度信，友才翻譯。
Market Forecasting
市場預測
Ground Rule No.6 (from our November packet) says:" I am not in the business of predicting general stock market or business fluctuations. If you think I can do this, or think it is essential to an investment program, you should not be in the partnership."
基本準則6（從我們11月文件）中說：“我不是在做預測股市或者業(yè)務起伏的生意。如果你認為我可以做到韧骗，或者認為這對投資是必須的翎苫，你不應該在合伙基金权埠。”
Of course, this rule can be attacked as fuzzy, complex, ambiguous, vague, etc. Nevertheless, I think the point is well understood by the great majority of our partners. We don't buy and sell stocks based upon what other people think the stock market is going to do (I never have an opinion) but rather upon what we think the company is going to do. The course of stock market will determine, to a great degree, when we will be right, but the accuracy of our analysis of the company will largely determine whether we will be right. In other words, we tend to concentrate on what should happen, not when it should happen.
當然煎谍，這個規(guī)則被迷惑攘蔽，復雜，模棱兩可呐粘，含糊不清等等攻擊满俗。然而，我認為這一點會被絕大多數(shù)合伙人很好地理解作岖。我們不會買賣股票基于其他人認為股市會干嘛（我從來沒有這個觀點）而是基于我們認為公司會干嘛唆垃。股市在很大程度上決定我們什么時候會對，但是對公司分析的準確度很大程度決定我們是否會對痘儡。換句話說辕万，我們試圖聚焦在什么會發(fā)生，而不是什么時候會發(fā)生沉删。
In our department store business I can say with considerable assurance that December will be better than July. (Notice how sophisticated I have already become about retailing.) What really counts is whether December is better than last December by a margin greater than our competitors' and what we are doing to set the stage for future Decembers. However,in our partnership business I not only can't say whether December will be better than July, but I can't even say that December won't produce a very large loss. It sometimes does. Our investments are simply not aware that it takes 365-1/4 days for the earth to make it around the sun. Even worse, they are not aware that your celestial orientation (and that of the IRS) requires that I report to you upon the conclusion of each orbit (the earth's - not ours). Therefore, we have to use a standard other than the calendar to measure our progress. This yardstick is obviously the general experience in securities as measured by the Dow. We have a strong feeling that this competitor will do quite decently over a period of years (Chrismas will come even if it's in July) and if we keep beating our competitor we will have to do something better than "quite decently". It's something like a retailer measuring his sales gains and profit margins against Seas' - beat them every year and somehow you'll see daylight.
在我們百貨商店業(yè)務我可以相當準確的說12月會比7月更好渐尿。（注意我已經(jīng)在關于零售方面變的多么老練了。）真正重要的是12月是否比去年12月更好且大幅優(yōu)于我們的競爭對手矾瑰，以及我們正在做什么為未來的12月做準備砖茸。然而，在我們的合伙基金業(yè)務中殴穴，我不僅不能說12月是否會比7月份更好凉夯，我甚至不能說12月不會產(chǎn)生大的損失。他有時確實會發(fā)生采幌。我們的投資不僅沒意識到一年有365.25天用于地球繞太陽旋轉(zhuǎn)劲够。更糟糕的是，他們都沒有意識到天上的起點休傍，而需要我來報告你每一個軌道的結(jié)論（地球的——不是我們的）再沧。因此，我們必須使用一個標準而不是日歷來衡量我們的進展尊残。這個標準很明顯是股市的一般狀況由道瓊斯指數(shù)來衡量。我有強烈預感這個競爭對手將會在幾年時間做的相當好（即使在7月份圣誕節(jié)也會來）淤堵，并且如果我們保持擊敗對手我們將必須做些事情比“相當好”更好寝衫。這某種程度像一個零售員衡量他的銷售利潤和盈利水平相比于西斯百貨——每年打敗他們就總會看到曙光。
29.packet：小包裹拐邪；信息包慰毅；文件
30.fuzzy：不清楚的；模糊的扎阶；含糊的
31.ambiguous：模棱兩可的汹胃；不明確的婶芭；含糊不清的
32.vague：模糊的；含糊的
33.sophisticated：復雜的着饥；先進的犀农；老練的
34.set the stage：為……打好基礎；為……創(chuàng)造條件
35.celestial：天空的宰掉；天上的呵哨；神仙
36.resurrect：使復興；使復活轨奄；起死回生
37.astrologer：占星家
38.quotation：引用孟害；報價；行情挪拟；市價
39.silly：愚蠢的挨务；傻的；荒唐的玉组；沒頭腦的
40.liability：責任谎柄；負債；債務球切；義務
41.whereby：由此谷誓；借以；憑此
42.aberration：異常行為吨凑；反澈赐幔現(xiàn)象
43.marvelous：了不起的；不平常的
44.articulation：關節(jié)鸵钝；表達糙臼；發(fā)音；說話
